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| Peyton Manning is doing special things in Denver |
Now that we've crossed over the threshold here in Week 9 with every team playing at least eight games (excluding the struggling Saints and Eagles who play tonight) it's time to play contender vs. pretender on the 12 teams that occupy the six playoff spots in their respective conferences.
AFC
Houston, Contender
An argument could be very well made that the Texans are the best team in the whole league. They have a dominant defense, an advanced running game and an underrated quarterback. Their squad as a whole is chalk full of playmakers from Andre Johnson to Arian Foster to J.J. Watt to Johnathan Joseph. Other than that abysmal performance vs. the Packers earlier in the season, the Texans have set the tone for the rest of the conference. Remember how easily they dispatched the Ravens earlier in the year?
Baltimore, Pretender
Earlier in the year I would have labeled them as a contender, but with the rash of injuries they've sustained and the absolute annihilation that was Week 6 in Houston, I don't see this team making a Super Bowl run. They escaped an upset yesterday against Cleveland, but Joe Flacco's play this season has been less than impressive. Mediocre on offense and even worse on defense, when's the last time you've heard that? They might be leading the AFC North at this point, but I don't see a 10-6 record getting them any further than a first round exit.
New England, Pretender
The Patriots will be beneficiaries of a relatively easy schedule going out (excluding games against San Fran and Houston) but there's something missing with this Patriots team. Everyone's duly noted that this team's "clutch gene" has been M.I.A. this year, but I just don't feel confident that dominant Patriots of the past is going to come out anytime soon. Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick and you can never count him out, but I have a hard time believing this team is complete enough to return to the Super Bowl once again.
Denver, Contender
Anyone really notice what Peyton Manning is doing out there in Denver? Nevermind just returning to form from his injury, he is putting together a solid case to be the conference's MVP. With a Top-10 defense behind him, a luxury he hasn't always had, Manning has a legitimate chance to win a Super Bowl. Crazy, right? This guy was seen as a villain and a ticking time-bomb only six months ago, now he's making a case for the league's best QB. Oh, and his squad only plays 1 playoff team for the rest of the season. 13-3 is a completely realistic record for the Broncos.
Indianapolis, Pretender
It hurts me to say this team is a pretender because the combination between Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano has been such a great story this year, especially since both Indy and Denver have benefited from the Luck-Manning debacle. There isn't much of a running game behind Luck and the team's run defense is putrid, two big components to a playoff team. New England and Houston (twice) are still on the schedule, making a playoff run still unlikely for this feel-good squad. I will say if Luck continues to play this way, this team will be a reckoning force in the coming years.
Pittsburgh, Contender
Before yesterday's comeback vs. the Giants, I would have labeled them a pretender. But this is the Steelers we're talking about and yesterday was vintage Pittsburgh. Their defense is once again Top-5 material and teams simply cannot pass on them (see Eli Manning). Mike Wallace has seemingly found his groove and if they can ever get healthy at RB, they have a chance to make a run. With Baltimore on the decline, I fully expect this team to win the division and battle Denver/Houston for AFC supremacy.
Playoffs
Wild Card
#3 Patriots over #6 Chargers
#4 Steelers over #5 Ravens
Divisional
#1 Texans over #4 Steelers
#2 Broncos over #3 Patriots
Championship
#2 Broncos over #1 Texans
NFC
Atlanta, Pretender
How is an 8-0 team a pretender? Well, when they don't do anything particularly well, they've played only one playoff team (at home) and their quarterback has a history of melting down in the postseason. Their defense doesn't scare me and Michael Turner hasn't been able to recover from his victory DUI he was charged with earlier this season. This team would be a contender in the AFC, but I don't have faith in Matty Ice circumnavigating a tough NFC toward a Super Bowl.
Chicago, Contender
Every ounce in my body tells me that this team is a pretender, but with the playmaking defense they have, the Bears are certainly right there. They've been the beneficiary of an easy schedule, but even Jay Cutler looks locked in right now. Do I expect him to keep it up all season? No. But when you're defense makes plays the way Green Bay's defense made plays in their Super Bowl run two years ago, you might be able to hide a Jay Cutler.
San Francisco, Contender
Here's another squad who relies on a dominate running game and an overwhelming defense. They have the league's best linebacking core and are evenly balanced between pass and rush defense. If Frank Gore can keep up his pounding attack all year and Alex Smith can keep his composure, then this team will be right there like they were last year. There's something about Jim Harbaugh that tells me, no matter what happens this regular season, watch out for the Niners come the postseason.
New York, Contender
Someone ask me why ESPNNewYork.com is having a meltdown over Eli's performance against the Steelers? He had one bad game against the league's most menacing pass defense, riddle me that. Before the second half of last week's Cowboys/Giants game, Eli was being heralded as the league's best, after 3 bad halves it's oh-my-god-what's-wrong-with-Eli, panic time. Don't worry, the old Eli isn't rearing his ugly, schoolboy head. This team will be right there in the end, there's just too many playmakers on both sides of the ball for them not to.
Green Bay, Contender
After a slow start, the Pack have gotten their heads back in the game and have put together an impressive four-game winning streak, starting with that road shellacking they put on the Texans in Week 6. Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in the game and now is putting up the numbers to back it up. I think their defense is better than ever and if win their way into a #2 or #3 seed, the Lambeau effect becomes a factor. I will say, a healthy Jordy Nelson is a necessary factor for a Super Bowl run for the Pack.
Minnesota, Pretender
The surprise of the year has already seen it's birthday cake slapped in its face. They were dominated by the Bucs last week at home and threw up a dud on the road vs. the Seahawks last night. While their defense actually is pretty solid, Christian Ponder is just not a good quarterback, never has been, never will be. With two games against the Bears, Packers and a game against Houston it's very realistic this team doesn't win a game for the rest of the year.
Playoffs
Wild Card
#3 Green Bay over #6 Seattle
#4 New York Giants over #5 Chicago
Divisional
#4 New York Giants over #1 Atlanta
#2 San Francisco over #3 Green Bay
Championship
#2 San Francisco over #4 New York Giants
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