Typifying NBA Draft Picks

Amar'e 9th overall pick in 2002 was a high value pick.

 The NBA Draft is, of all the professional drafts, the most important one. It's the most easy transition from amateur to pro, and it has by far the most potential to change a franchise almost immediately. But much like other drafts, there are busts, steals, great picks, unimportant picks and the like. Here we give you a little breakdown of what types of draft picks one team may get. (Only going to use players from the last 15 years as examples for contextual purposes).

The Franchise-Altering 1st Overall Pick
Examples: Tim Duncan ('97), Lebron James ('03),  Dwight Howard ('04), Derrick Rose ('08)
2012 potential: Yes, Anthony Davis
This player usually seems obvious, but the 4-for-15 stats indicates otherwise. A 1st overall pick always has some intangible that absolutely, positively cannot be taught. In the case of Duncan it was basketball IQ, in LeBron and Dwight it was size/athleticism, and with Derrick Rose it was pure relentlessness. Usually this one guy can provide enough talent to take a NBA team from doormat to championship contender within three years. Here's just one of those situations where you won the lottery, and then won the lottery, pretty simple here.

Franchise-Altering Lottery Picks(2-15)
Examples: Dirk Nowitzki-9th ('98), Amar'e Stoudemire-9th ('02), Carmelo Anthony-3rd & Dwyane Wade-5th ('03), Deron Williams-3rd & Chris Paul-4th ('05), Kevin Durant-2nd ('07), Kevin Love-5th ('08)
2012 potential: Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III
A value pick indeed. Anytime you can get a guy that can change your franchise, it's absolutely amazing. Anytime you don't win the lottery, but still essentially win the lottery, that's phenomenal. Again these guys are much like the previous category, except for some reason they got passed over, probably because of the imperfect science of scouting. There is always something a tad bit "questionable" for these guys, but they eventually for some reason prove that flaw to be false.

Late Bloomer 1st Round Picks
Examples: Tracy McGrady-9th ('97), Richard Hamilton-7th ('99), Joe Johnson-10th ('01), Al Jefferson-15th ('04), Danny Granger-17th ('05)
2012 potential: Damian Lillard, John Henson, Moe Harkless
This guy is still a lottery pick and eventually fills out his worth, but it may not intially be recognized. They are drafted pretty much accurately, but sometimes are seen as almost bust for how high they were selected. For some(Hamilton, Jefferson) a simple change of scenery puts their career in motion, but sometimes its a longer maturation process. NBA coaching usually has something to do with their career progressions.  


The Absolute, Positive Steal
Examples: Manu Ginobili-57th ('99), Michael Redd-43rd ('00), Monta Ellis-40th ('05), Rajon Rondo-21st ('06), Marc Gasol-48th ('07)
2012 potential: Kendall Marshall, Jae Crowder, Hollis Thompson
These guys can only really be had with the 20th pick or later. Most of the time a guy of this caliber and underrated-nature falls into a team's lap, but sometime there is advanced scouting. Usually you see this pick in the second round, and you are going ballistic because you robbed the draft blind(but you didn't actually know you did). Or in the case people passed on a guy like Rajon Rondo because he couldn't score to save his life, but he was the ultimate floor general. Out of all five of these guys it's a toss-up between Manu and Rondo to who was a bigger steal, picking arguably the best PG in the game at 20 or picking one of the best bench players to ever play at 57? I'm leaning Manu, but something says that Rondo pick will bring another banner to Boston sometime soon.


You Got Exactly What You Were Looking For Pick
Examples: Al Harrington-25th ('98), Andrei Kirilenko-24th ('99), Jason Kapono-31st ('03), Wilson Chandler-23rd ('07), Mario Chalmers-34th ('08), 
2012 potential: Marquis Teague, Miles Plumlee
They're drafted exactly where they're supposed, late first round pick/early second round pick. They pan out to be solid NBA players, and they usually give what you what you want out of them. There low-risk/low-reward players and they pan out that way. However, they can serve as vital role players to some great teams(cough...cough...Mario Chalmers). With all things considered they're about as boring as an NBA player could be.


Well It Could Have Been Worse Pick
Examples: Jason Williams-7th ('98), Drew Gooden-4th ('02), Kirk Hinrich-7th ('03), Raymond Felton-5th ('05), O.J. Mayo-3rd ('08)
2012 potential: Fab Melo, Austin Rivers, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Almost, just almost a group of busts here, but since they had decent NBA careers their top-10 selection isn't completely invalidated. It's not like any of these guys forgot how to be good players, their transitions from the NBA just weren't as smooth as originally thought. Either they were overrated by the league scouts or they simply enjoyed their NBA stardom a bit much. Maybe they were slow to pick up on the more advanced NBA sets, or maybe they just didn't give a crap. Either way these guys are just a step below the "name shall remain nameless" category.

The Bust To End All Busts
Examples: Jonathan Bender-5th ('96), KWAME BROWN-1st ('01), Darko Milicic-2nd ('03), Tyrus Thomas-4th ('06), Michael Beasley-2nd ('08)
2012 potential: Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal
The names on this list probably blow your mind and it'll blow your mind over and over again. Something went absolutely, terribly wrong when the team scouted and picked this guy. Either they were relying too heavily on unique size as a selling point, or they just ignored or missed a serious character flaw. A bust seriously this bad could set a franchise back for years, especially if a pick behind the bust pick becomes a superstar. Talk about rubbing salt in the wounds...for hours.

"What If" Major Injury Pick
Examples: Jay Williams-2nd ('02), Shaun Livingston-4th ('04), Greg Oden-1st ('07),
When this happens it's really just sad, and unfortunate. No one wants to see a great college prospect flame-out in the NBA because of a freak knee injury or a proneness to injury in general. There is always a major "what if" question here to how good the player would have been and it can also set a franchise back several years, when it wasn't even their fault. This is probably the best macrocosm of injuries in sports.