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| Fans and GMs alike must beware of RGIII. |
Robert Griffin III dazzled us this year with a mix of blazing speed and sensational throws. His impressive year garnered him a Heisman Trophy as he carried the Baylor Bears to a surprising 10-3 finish. Immediately after his wild 67-56 victory over the Washington Huskies in the Alamo Bowl, scouts and draft analysts began judging and plotting his whereabouts in the 2012 draft. Griffin is obviously a serious talent and it doesn't surprise me that he finds himself as a top 2 prospect, but this is not a player a team wants to dive head first in on.
Over a four year career, Griffin has amassed some interesting stats. His touchdown numbers over three years(missed one year because of injury) isn't that impressive coming in at a 25 a year, but his interceptions per year average is only 5. Combine his 25/5 TD:INT ratio with a 66% completion percentage and you're talking about an accurate QB. But, we all know that his biggest asset is his ability to make plays with his legs. Griffin's athleticism is unparalleled and is up there with the likes of Vince Young and Mike Vick in their hay days. Let's be serious, no one is doubting this kids' skills and athleticism; the combine did nothing but reaffirm them. A 4.41 in the combine was the highest registered 40 for a quarterback since Vick was burning the combine rubber back in 2000. Most scouts said his great combine will make him the surefire #2 pick in this year's draft, and with the way teams are clamoring over him, I'm pretty sure these scouts are right.
Teams that believe trading up for RGIII must beware. I'm not so sure pouring out the piggy bank for this sensational athlete is truly the right move. First off, Griffin sat out basically the entire 2009 with a slight ACL tear. While we can see that this tear hasn't affected the QB's mobility, it is always a concern when you're about to don him your "franchise" quarterback. Investing 22 million(Cam Newton's contract from last year) in an active running QB is a major risk, especially if he has caught the injury bug in the past.
Secondly, and I think the most importantly, he comes from the same camp as Michael Vick and Vince Young. Both Vick and Young were phenomenal college quarterbacks and have both showed flashes of brilliance in the NFL, but neither have been able to carry a team. Neither have been able to show the offensive leadership in crunch time that is required by championship quarterbacks. I understand that his throwing motion is far superior to both Vick and Young, but the way he led Baylor this year reminds me all too much of the Young's days at Texas and Vick's time in Blacksburg. Both of these guys, who entered the league as athletes, still have trouble staying in the pocket. While Vick has found his niche in the pocket, he hasn't been able to translate that to success in the wins department, especially in the playoffs. Young just lost his mind. I understand that people will rebuttal this argument with the emergence of Cam Newton. But Cam Newton is different to me. Newton is like Tim Tebow in terms of size and running style, but he possess actual pocket presence and an underrated knowledge of the game. Griffin can't run over people like Newton can and surely cannot withstand the hits Cam had this year. Yeah, he might be able to run around defenders, but if they catch up with him he will get crushed.
Third, he's a Heisman winning quarterback. Winning the Heisman is most likely a curse within itself, but especially for quarterbacks. Many of them either weren't suited for the position at the NFL or they simply couldn't handle the pressure. Griffin III joins an unimpressive list of Heisman winning QBs that includes Troy Smith, a career backup, Matt Leinart, who never had the mental fortitude for the NFL, Jason White, who just wasn't that good and Eric Crouch, a retiree after one year. He also joins Tim Tebow, who's had more success as a miracle worker, Sam Bradford, who has shown flashes of ability and Carson Palmer, aka, the exception to the rule. If you count Palmer and Tebow then this category is still 2-6 over the last 10 years. Last time I checked that gives RGIII a 33% chance to be good, not great and certainly not hall of fame.
So weighing the options, we're stuck at a crossroads. If you're the Dolphins, Browns and Redskins, who are all rumored to be interested in trading up for the #2 spot, do you throw the kitchen sink at the Rams for RGIII? On one hand, you're like, "Hell yeah, this is a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback with serious potential." But on the other hand, you're like, "Is it really smart to give up so much for potential?" This is what being an NFL GM is all about. Making tough, franchise altering decisions. In fact, the ultimate winner in this whole situation is probably going to be the St. Louis Rams. Trading this 2nd overall pick will surely open up possibilities to quicken the rebuilding process. Hell, I bet they're going to rob someone blind. I'm just saying, you better hope it's not your team.
One final time for closure. I'm not denouncing Robert Griffin III. I'm not writing him off. I'm not labeling him a bust before he takes his first mini-camp snap. I'm just warning fans and GMs alike; be cautious when crowning him king, one wrong move and your franchise could become the Raiders or worse, the Buffalo Bills.
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